The Cincinnati Reds probably face 100 losses in 2016 with or without top starting pitching prospect Robert Stephenson.
The Reds won’t suddenly transform into contenders if they play top position prospect Jesse Winker every day in 2016 either.
The same goes for Jose Peraza, Cody Reed, Alex Blandino and any other prospect who could be an asset to the team for the six-year period of club control of those players.
The Reds need to consider their top prospects in that six-year framework.That’s not a six-year plan until they’re contenders. It’s roster planning that accounts for the stark small-market baseball reality that the Reds are only going to have most of their best players for a maximum of six years.
The Reds lost four of their best players in 2015. Johnny Cueto was a once-in-a-generation pitcher for the Reds. Todd Frazier was the face of the franchise. Mike Leake was a model of consistency. Aroldis Chapman is perhaps the most dominant relief pitcher the game has ever seen.
The Reds just can’t compete financially. They can’t afford to keep most of their best players. This exodus from Cincinnati will only continue.
With the odds stacked against them, the Reds have to adopt a strategy that allows them to contend at their strongest for the longest period of time.
The last thing the Reds need to do in 2016 is waste a year of player control on top prospects. Let them all develop another year in the minors.
But it’s hard to tell what the disjointed Reds’ front office will do. This same group engineered the pitiful trade return for Frazier and botched the timing of the Chapman trade. It might somehow make sense to them to waste a year of player control for top prospects during a total loss of a season.
Robb Hoff writes about the Cincinnati Reds for OutsidePitch MLB. You can follow him on Twitter and Facebook.
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